An increasing share of
U.S. home buyers have recession worries on their minds, around fifty-percent
polled said they'll put their home search plans on hold if a recession comes.
A little over 36% of 755
active home buyers surveyed in August said they anticipate the next recession
to start in 2020, based on a survey issued on Wednesday, Aug. 28 by
Realtor.com. The 36% number is an increase from below 30% in March. Approximately
56% of participants in the most recent poll said they would delay shopping for
a home if the economy takes a turn for the worse.
A senior economist at Realtor.com said in
different words that the next recession will likely be influenced by external factors
which are not housing related, like a lengthy trade war, less corporate
spending or the spreading of the European recession to U.S. shores. Hardly any economist thinks the coming recession will be anything close to 2008. That recession was due to
significantly different factors.
Roughly 44% of those
surveyed agreed and said they feel the next recession would be less severe than
a decade ago. Millions of Americans lost their homes to foreclosure after
getting mortgages with easy qualifying guidelines believing they could afford
the home or it would rise in value non-stop.
In August, Zillow
forecasted that international trade policy, a geopolitical situation and/or a
stock market correction would be the main factor that leads to a recession.
In the first quarter of
2019, over one-third of home buyers said they believed that the next recession
would be even more detrimental than in 2008. However, 44% of those shopping for
a home said they think this recession won't be as bad as the 2008 recession,
indicating an improvement from the 40% the spring of 2019.
At the same time,
one-half of prospective home buyers said they felt more optimistic about the
housing market, up a healthy 5-percent from 45% early 2019. Just 21% felt more
negative about a possible recession.
In the most-recent
survey, 17% expect a recession to begin in 2020, 14% anticipate sometime in
2021 and 7 percent felt at some point in 2022.
Can people actually will a recession into existence with negative thinking?
